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Defending the Earth!

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    Tony Geiser
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Defending Earth: From Killer Asteroids to Alien Invasions

Earth has a target on its back.

Welcome to Earth!

If it’s not giant space rocks making unannounced house calls, it’s possibly little green men deciding our planet looks ripe for conquest. Yet the threats, asteroid impacts and hypothetical alien invasions, are taken seriously by scientists and militaries alike.

Let’s evaluate how we currently defend our pale blue dot from these non-human dangers, where we’re woefully unprepared, and what wild ideas we’ve cooked up for worst-case scenarios.

The Sky Is Falling (No, Really)

Space has been chucking rocks at Earth for billions of years.

Most burn up harmlessly. But now and then, one comes in too hot. Ask the dinosaurs.

A 6-mile-wide asteroid took care of them 66 million years ago.

More recently, in 1908, an asteroid exploded over Tunguska, Siberia, flattening 80 million trees across 830 square miles. Luckily, that area was remote. In 2013, we weren’t as lucky.

Aftermath of Tunguska

A ~60-foot asteroid blew up in the atmosphere over Chelyabinsk, Russia with the force of about 440,000 tons of TNT.

It shattered windows in a wide radius and injured some 1,600 people (mostly from flying glass). No one saw it coming. Literally.

We’ll get back to that little oversight in a moment.

The 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor explosion released ~440 kilotons of energy (over 20× the Hiroshima bomb) and injured 1,600+ people on the ground.

These events are cosmic wake-up calls. Chelyabinsk especially shook things up (besides all those windows). It reminded the world that even a relatively small rock can pack a punch.

A NASA planetary defense officer called it “a cosmic wake-up call,” emphasizing the need to detect larger asteroids before they strike.

Translation: we got lucky this time, so maybe let’s not press our luck further.

Humanity’s Space-Rock Defenses (Such As They Are)

So, what are we doing to stop the next asteroid from ruining everyone’s day?

Oh shit!

In short: scanning the skies, and if we find something, giving it a little nudge. NASA and other agencies run programs to find near-Earth objects (NEOs). Telescopes around the globe (and hopefully soon, a dedicated space telescope called NEO Surveyor) hunt for asteroids on collision courses.

We’ve found thousands of them, especially the big ones over 1 km wide that could end civilization.

But smaller city-killers still lurk. In fact, nobody noticed the Chelyabinsk rock beforehand because it came from the direction of the sun, masking its approach. In 2019, a ~130-meter asteroid dubbed “2019 OK” zoomed by Earth closer than the Moon, and scientists only spotted it a day before the flyby.

Oops.

Turns out space is really dark, asteroids are sneaky, and our detection net has holes. Small asteroids (tens of meters) are practically ninjas, hard to spot until they’re kissing the atmosphere.

What if we do spot a dangerous asteroid heading our way?

The current plan is essentially: hit it with something. In 2022, NASA conducted its first planetary defense test mission, DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test). This suicidal little spacecraft plowed into an asteroid moonlet at 14,000 mph.

And it worked.

DART shoved the 525-foot-wide asteroid (Dimorphos) into a shorter orbit, changing its orbital period by 32 minutes. Talk about moving the heavens (well, a tiny piece of them). NASA’s chief gleefully called it a “watershed moment” for planetary defense.

We finally proved we can smack a space rock hard enough to budge it.

Cue the applause, but hold the champagne. DART hit a small asteroid; if a mountain-sized asteroid is inbound, a little kinetic bump may barely scratch its trajectory.

Scientists admit that ramming a lone spacecraft into a giant asteroid would have minimal effect on those behemoths.

It’s like trying to stop a freight train with a Smart Car. For larger threats, we’ll need bigger pushes or multiple hits. One idea (when we’re really desperate) is the classic nuclear option.

Pop culture loves the nuke-the-asteroid scenario (thanks, Armageddon).

In reality, blowing an asteroid to bits is risky.  You might just turn one big bullet into a shotgun blast of fragments. But nukes could help if used smartly. R

Recent research suggests detonating a nuclear device some distance from the asteroid, not to obliterate it, but to bathe it in X-rays, could vaporize part of the surface and essentially push the asteroid off course.

In other words, a nuclear shove rather than a disperse-and-pray.

Still, no one’s eager to test this for real unless absolutely necessary (also, there’s that whole Outer Space Treaty banning nukes in space, but let’s be honest, if it’s planet-wide extinction or breaking a treaty, the rock is getting nuked).

Even with a solid deflection plan, timing is everything.

A small nudge years in advance beats a giant shove at the last minute. NASA ran simulations that show if we only get a few months’ warning, our options are bleak (basically “duck and cover”, or as scientists call it, evacuation).

We really need 5–10 years notice to confidently deflect an asteroid using current tech. That’s why finding these objects early is so crucial. As one NASA scientist put it, “All we have to do is change its speed a little” so that Earth and the asteroid miss each other in the future.

Simple in theory, but only if we see it coming in time.

Planetary Defense: Team Earth (Kinda)

It’s comforting to think humanity would put aside its squabbles to face a killer asteroid.

Astronauts blowing up an asteroid

To some extent, that’s happening. After the 2013 Chelyabinsk wake-up, the United Nations got involved in asteroid defense. They endorsed two groups: the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) to share observations globally, and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) for world space agencies to cook up deflection plans.

In plain speak, IAWN is like a global asteroid early-warning email list, and SMPAG is a club where NASA, ESA, and others brainstorm how to blow up… er, redirect asteroids.

It’s a start, but these are more committees than action heroes.

We do see international cooperation on actual missions. NASA’s DART impact was just phase one, the European Space Agency is sending a follow-up probe named Hera to survey the aftermath of that cosmic fender-bender. NASA and ESA teaming up to tag-team an asteroid is the kind of global teamwork we need more of.

Even countries like China are jumping in: China plans to launch an ambitious dual-spacecraft mission around 2025–2026 to slam one probe into an asteroid and observe the impact with another.

They basically want to do DART and Hera in one go. When multiple world powers are independently testing how to deflect asteroids, it’s actually a good sign, redundancy might save our bacon.

Yet, let’s not sing Kumbaya just yet.

Global coordination is tricky. Who decides when to take action on a threatening asteroid? The United Nations? NASA? The nation under the impact crosshairs?

There’s no single “Planetary Defense President” (though that title would look great on a resume).

If an asteroid were predicted to hit, say, Europe, would all countries pitch in for a deflection mission? One hopes. But international decision-making can be slow and messy, imagine trying to get dozens of nations to agree on anything, let alone launching a nuclear-tipped rocket into space.

At least there’s a framework now: any nation that spots a threat is supposed to inform IAWN, and SMPAG will discuss mitigation options.

“Discuss” being the operative word. In an emergency, I suspect things would get chaotic fast, with leaders scrambling on Zoom calls at 3 A.M. and scientists yelling through PowerPoint slides.

Fun times.

What If They Come in Peace (or Not)?

Defending Earth against rocks is hard enough. But what about alien invaders?

I come in peace

There’s no manual for that. No government publicly admits to having an “In Case of Aliens” battle plan (Area 51 conspiracy theorists, calm down). That said, militaries love contingency plans, however far-fetched.

The Pentagon reportedly has plans for everything, including, yes, a war with E.T.

One U.S. Air Force professor let slip that of course they have thought about alien invasions: “We make all kinds of contingency and war plans,” he said. If little green men start shooting, the first order is apparently “preserve your forces”, i.e. hide and survive the first onslaught.

Then learn about the enemy (because charging in blindly is a good way to get vaporized).

In other words, humanity’s initial strategy might be to take cover, observe the aliens with every spy satellite and sensor we’ve got, and not get obliterated on Day 1.

Inspiring, huh?

Let’s speculate: If a hostile alien fleet arrived, they’d likely knock out our communications and nuclear capabilities early. No surprise, any smart invader would cut our lines and disarm us. Earth’s nations would either band together fast or be picked off one by one.

The optimistic view (cue Independence Day theme music) is that all the superpowers unite against the common threat.

In fact, Ronald Reagan once mused at the UN that our “differences worldwide would vanish if we were facing an alien threat from outside this world”. It’s a lovely thought, the world as one big Allied force against the Martians. In a practical sense, the U.S. and other major militaries would almost certainly coordinate operations.

Even the old Cold War rivals would hug it out in the foxhole; as one analysis noted, America and Russia together could field millions of troops, thousands of warplanes, and lots of nukes, making them natural co-defenders in an alien war.

Former enemies turned teammates, nothing unites like an existential threat.

On the flip side, what if the aliens aren’t immediately hostile? Suppose they show up saying “We come in peace” (and not in a Mars Attacks! ironic way). We don’t have a clear protocol for that either.

The United Nations does have an Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA), which sounds like it should be in charge of greeting ET.

A rumor in 2010 even claimed the UN was appointing an “alien ambassador.” (It was quickly denied, the UNOOSA director said “It sounds really cool, but I have to deny it”. Instead, she was busy talking about asteroids, ironically.) In reality, first contact might fall to whomever aliens ping first, scientists monitoring radio signals, perhaps, or some unlucky farmer with a bright porch light.

There are SETI protocols about announcing a detected signal, but invasion or landing scenarios?

That’s more in the realm of sci-fi and academic thought experiments.

Non-military responses would focus on communication and diplomacy, basically not shooting at the aliens immediately. We’d try to figure out their language, intentions, etc. However, if aliens arrive over our cities with ominous death rays humming, the time for handshakes is over.

Military planners have gamed out this scenario to some extent: protect surviving forces, use guerrilla tactics if necessary, and aim any advanced tech we have at the invaders.

Conceivably, we’d throw everything at them, fighter jets, tanks, drones, cyber attacks (maybe our hackers try uploading a virus à la Independence Day, even though that movie solution was, let’s face it, pure 90s tech fantasy). If humanity survives the opening salvo and manages any successful hits, it could become a war of attrition or resistance. The goal would be to make occupation costly for the aliens and hope they decide Earth isn’t worth the trouble (or figure out a sneaky way to disable their mothership, Hollywood-style).

Stephen Hawking warned that meeting aliens might go poorly for us, comparing it to Native Americans encountering Columbus.

In his view, advanced extraterrestrials might be nomads looking to conquer or colonize, so we should be very cautious. In short, Hawking was Team “Don’t Broadcast Our Existence.” If they come anyway, well, he implied we’d be in the natives’ position with the aliens playing the role of European colonizers.

Not a cheerful outlook.

Lasers, Nukes, and Other Toys in the Attic

Whether it’s asteroids or aliens, humanity has long fantasized about high-tech defenses.

Orbital defense laser

Lasers, for instance. In the movies, you can’t defend Earth without a giant laser or two. In reality, we’re working on it. There’s a serious proposal called DE-STAR that envisions a huge orbiting laser array to zap asteroids.

The idea is to focus enough energy on an incoming asteroid to vaporize its surface layers; the vapor jet would act like a rocket thrust, nudging the rock off course.

Think of it as melting the asteroid bit by bit until it goes away or at least changes direction. The tech to do this at scale is still theoretical, it would require a massive laser in space, far bigger than anything we have now. Scientists say the physics is sound, it’s the engineering (and cost) that’s the issue.

A smaller version, DE-STARLITE, could ride alongside an asteroid and slowly cook it over months or years.

Promising, but not helpful for a surprise rock on a collision course next week.

As one researcher noted, if you found a 100-meter asteroid coming in a week from now, “directed energy would not be a viable solution”, we’d need far more laser than we can muster on short notice. If we have decades of lead time, though, even moderate-power lasers could deflect a big asteroid.

So lasers might be our future best friend for planetary defense, but they’re not saving the day tomorrow.

For alien invaders, would lasers help?

Potentially, if we had them. Any advanced aliens likely have way better tech, but humanity isn’t totally devoid of directed-energy weapons. The U.S. military has been testing high-energy lasers for shooting down drones and missiles.

They’re not “ray guns” out of sci-fi, but they exist.

A sufficiently powerful ground or space laser could at least fry the electronics of incoming UFOs, assuming the aliens didn’t swat our lasers like flies. There’s also talk of particle beam weapons, railguns (electromagnetic launchers), and other exotic arms. The newly formed U.S. Space Force (yes, that’s a real thing now) is focused on near-Earth military ops, not alien battles, but some of the tech it develops (like satellite-killer missiles or jamming systems) might be repurposed against hostile ET craft.

In a pinch, we’d repurpose anything we have, point all the nukes upwards, use satellites as kamikaze impactors, maybe even disperse orbital debris to act as improvised flak (a cloud of junk to damage enemy ships).

Desperate times, desperate measures.

And what about those planetary shields we see in movies?

Sorry, no force fields on aisle 5. We don’t have deflector shields that can envelop the Earth or even a city. The closest real concept might be using a swarm of satellites as a physical/energy shield, but that’s not very feasible with today’s tech.

It’s far more practical to intercept threats before they hit us than to tank the hit with a shield.

Scientists have lightly toyed with ideas like plasma shields or magnetic shields to protect from radiation or small debris, but stopping a big asteroid or alien weapon with a force field remains squarely in science fiction for now. So unless some UFO crashes and we reverse-engineer its shielding tech, Earth’s defense will rely on good old-fashioned missiles, explosives, and engineering ingenuity rather than magic bubbles.

Who Ya Gonna Call?

SDC special ops

If you’re imagining a dedicated Planetary Defense Force with flashy uniforms and cool ray guns, dial back the fiction a bit.

Right now, planetary defense is handled by a patchwork of space agencies, observatories, and militaries on the side. NASA has a Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO), but calling it an “office” is almost generous, a recent audit found it basically had one full-time staff member (plus a contractor) running the show. Yes, one person to coordinate saving the world from asteroids.

Take a moment to let that sink in, and maybe send them a thank-you card.

The same audit fretted that NASA’s planetary defense efforts lack a long-term strategy and sufficient resources. In bureaucratic terms, it was a polite way of saying “they’re winging it with peanuts.”

What about a real Sol Defense Corps?

The U.N. isn’t assembling XCOM (yet). The United States did create the Space Force, which sounds like it should be patrolling the solar system for hostile aliens, but its actual mandate is more low-key, mainly protecting satellites and space infrastructure (from other humans, not Martians).

Other nations have space commands or units focused on space security. In a real alien invasion scenario, presumably these would form the core of an ad hoc planetary defense force. It might be a coalition rather than a single outfit: think NATO but for Earth vs. Aliens, with generals from various countries coordinating a combined defense.

Some futurists and science fiction authors have called for a permanent planetary defense organization that goes beyond asteroids, essentially a standing force ready for any space threat.

It’s a compelling idea: a sort of international “Space Guard” (a term Arthur C. Clarke used) that watches the skies and has the authority to act.

So far, nations have been reluctant to hand over that kind of power to a global entity. We humans tend to move slowly on global governance, probably we’ll only get an Earth Defense Force after we absolutely need one (and survive the lesson).

Until then, defending the planet remains a collaborative improvisation between scientists who find the threats and whatever rockets and warheads we can scramble together to meet the danger.

Bureaucracy vs. Apocalypse

Apocolypse paperwork

One might assume that preventing Earth’s annihilation is a universally agreed priority.

In theory, yes. In practice, it competes with a thousand other pressing issues for funding and attention. Planetary defense suffers from the “giggle factor”, it often sounds too much like a sci-fi plot to many politicians, until a big meteor actually explodes over a major city.

There’s also the procrastination problem: the odds of any given year being the year of an impact or alien arrival are low, so it’s easy to kick the can down the road. That leads to chronic underinvestment.

For example, NASA’s planned space telescope to hunt asteroids (NEO Surveyor) had its budget slashed and launch delayed by years. And remember that lone PDCO staffer and shoestring operation? That’s a result of funding that wouldn’t even round up to a decimal point in the overall budget.

It’s ironic, we spend trillions on earthly defense (armies, nukes, etc.), but peanuts on planetary defense.

The return on investment could be literally avoiding extinction, yet bureaucratic inertia and short-term thinking prevail.

Another challenge is coordination between agencies and countries. The best science in the world is useless if governments can’t execute a response in time. Imagine astronomers discover a 300-meter asteroid due to hit in 10 years.

Who leads the mission? Do we use an American rocket? Russian nukes? European telescopes?

Getting everyone to agree on a plan could devolve into squabbling, precious time lost to meetings and politics. There’s also public reaction to manage: sound the alarm too early and you risk panic or fatalism (“we’re all gonna die, party like there’s no tomorrow!”). Announce it too late and people don’t have time to prepare or evacuate if needed.

And don’t underestimate denialism, a not-insignificant number of people (and politicians) might refuse to believe an impact is imminent, or choose to believe it’s a hoax or some “New World Order” trick.

*Look up the plot of the satire film Don’t Look Up, art imitating life when it comes to ignoring scientists until it’s too late.*

Speaking of Don’t Look Up, that movie comically (and depressingly) showed how an extinction-level comet threat might be fumbled by greed, politics, and social media circus. In the film, officials delay action, then a tech billionaire hijacks the mission for profit, and, spoiler, humanity blows it. While exaggerated, the satire hit nerves because, well, we’ve seen how humanity handles slower-moving existential threats (cough climate change cough).

An asteroid impact would be more immediate, but there’s a risk that bureaucracy and infighting could still botch the response.

Perhaps the biggest non-technical threat to planetary defense is complacency: the tendency to assume “nah, it won’t happen in our term of office, why spend money now?” Proactive prevention doesn’t generate thanks because when it works, nothing happens.

As the saying goes, “When planetary defense succeeds, nobody notices.” Let something slip through the cracks, though, and suddenly everyone’s asking “why didn’t you do something?!”

Pop Culture: Help or Hype?

Our imaginations have been preparing us for disasters and invasions for decades, for better or worse.

Pop culture has undeniably raised awareness of these scenarios, but it’s also filled our heads with some questionable ideas.

Asteroids in Movies: In 1998, Armageddon and Deep Impact both taught the public that big space rocks are out there. Credit where due, those movies sparked discussion in policy circles and might have nudged NASA to get more funds for asteroid detection. But Armageddon’s solution of sending oil drillers with a nuclear bomb is, let’s say, not Plan A in real life.

NASA folks like to joke about the film’s scientific inaccuracies, e.g., it might be easier to train astronauts to drill than vice versa, and also please don’t detonate nukes on an asteroid unless you enjoy radioactive buckshot raining down.

Deep Impact was a tad more realistic, showing an evacuation and underground shelters when deflection partly fails, grim, but that scenario had a ring of truth about political and social fallout.

In the alien invasion department, we have the granddaddy, Independence Day.

It gave us the iconic rallying speech (“We will not go quietly into the night!”) and the feel-good notion of humanity uniting to kick alien butt. However, it also gave us the absurd idea that a primitive computer virus could take down an advanced alien mothership. (Good luck interfacing a 1996 Mac with an extraterrestrial OS… maybe they were running Windows 95?)

Despite its silliness, Independence Day at least engrained the expectation that if aliens come, the world should band together. Even a U.S. President in the film personally flies a fighter jet, talk about setting high bars for leadership.

Other stories added their own tropes: H.G. Wells’ War of the Worlds had aliens undone by Earth’s microbes, a reminder that even invaders might have achilles heels (but we probably shouldn’t bank on a cosmic cold saving us).

The Day the Earth Stood Still (the 1951 original) depicted a peaceful alien warning earthlings to calm down our warlike ways, showing that aliens might not always be invaders, and how we react matters.

More recently, Arrival gave a nuanced take on communicating with inscrutable aliens, and Don’t Look Up (as mentioned) skewered our likely dysfunction in a crisis. Even the Marvel movies and Avengers stories, while pure fantasy, shape public perception of alien threats, some people half-joke about calling Iron Man or Captain Marvel if things go south.

The influence of pop culture is a double-edged sword.

On one hand, it keeps these scenarios in the public consciousness. Generations of scientists and astronauts were inspired by fiction. On the other hand, it can breed complacency or confusion, folks think of Bruce Willis heroics or deus ex machina solutions.

In reality, there’s no secret Men in Black organization protecting us (if there is, they owe us an explanation!).

If a big asteroid is discovered or UFOs appear in our skies, it’s going to be scientists, engineers, and plain old bureaucrats in conference rooms figuring out what to do, not Hollywood heroes with a catchy one-liner. Pop culture also tends to wrap up crises neatly in two hours. Real life could be a lot messier and open-ended.

That said, never underestimate the motivational power of fiction.

Sometimes it’s easier for politicians to fund something if they’ve seen a movie where not funding it led to disaster. After all, a Congressman famously cited the film Armageddon when discussing asteroid detection funding, basically saying “we don’t want to end up like that.”

Pop culture provides a common reference point, almost everyone on the street knows the gist of these disaster and invasion scenarios because of movies and TV.

It’s then a bit easier for experts to say, “Remember that movie? Here’s how we’re trying to avoid that outcome,” and be understood.

Conclusion: Snark Aside, Let’s Get Prepared

Defending Earth is a monumental task that blends real science with speculative planning.

We’ve made genuine strides: we’re finding space rocks faster than ever, we proved we can deflect an asteroid (at least a small one), and nations are talking to each other about planetary defense. But our current capabilities are embryonic, underfunded, and reliant on a lot of luck and timing. Meanwhile, the prospect of an alien encounter looms somewhere between fantasy and legitimate concern, extremely rare if ever, but potentially existential. As it stands, our “plan” for aliens is mostly to improvise and fight like hell if it comes to that.

The snark here is to keep us entertained (gallows humor, if you will), but the subject is dead serious.

The good news: unlike the dinosaurs, we have a space program (and big brains), so we don’t have to go quietly into that good night.

The bad news: bureaucracy, egos, and apathy could trip us at the finish line.

Public support and political will are crucial to ramping up our planetary defense, before an emergency, not after. In a perfect world, we’d never need to launch a kinetic impactor or fire a nuke in space or mobilize a global space armada. But as the old adage goes: hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

At the end of the day, defending Earth may be the ultimate test of whether we can unite as a species.

Be it a hulking asteroid or a fleet of saucers in the sky, the threat would be global, and so must be the response. Let’s just hope we get our act together in time, with less drama than a Hollywood script. Until then, sleep tight. The sky isn’t falling… probably. But if it ever does, at least we’ll have a slightly better idea of what to do (and a thousand movies on what not to do).

Solis Supra Omnia!